The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) has released its draft 20-year plan for 2018-2037, and the news is not good — it anticipates an $18 billion shortfall over that time ($39 billion expenses less $21 billion revenue). The plan anticipates insufficient revenue for basic maintenance, let alone highway expansion projects like U.S. Highway 14.

While the MnDOT report estimates that revenues will increase by 2 percent annually over that time period, construction costs will increase at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. Increased vehicle fuel efficiency and flat miles traveled also contribute to the revenue short fall. The gas tax currently raises about $1.8 billion a year; because it is a per-gallon cost, less gasoline used means less gas tax revenue.

The 20-year plan reflects a focus on maintenance. MnDOT will be able to ensure federal standards for pavement and bridges, but will fall short of Minnesota standards. Interstate highways will get top priority, followed by federal highways and then state highways. The same priorities apply to bridges. MnDOT will rely on the Transportation Economic Development (TED) grant program for modest highway improvement projects. This means MnDOT does not anticipate having funding for an expansion project as large as the two remaining sections of U.S. Highway 14 from New Ulm to Rochester.

The full vision for transportation is available at www.minnesotago.org. The 20-year plan, which is a part of that vision, can be read here. MnDOT will hold a public hearing on the plan at 4 p.m. on Oct. 6, with access to the hearing available at its headquarters as well as all of the regional offices. We will post details closer to the date.